DAILY FOREX SIGNALS SERVICE
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This is a sample report - Market Overview released on January 9, 2018
EUR/USD: Three Fed hikes may be too much - Bostic
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, a voter on interest rate policy this year, said the Federal Reserve may only need to raise interest rates two times in 2018 given weak price pressures and possible loss of public confidence in the central bank's ability to hit a 2% inflation target.
- He also added his voice to a group of Fed officials concerned that central bank action may "invert" the yield curve and make long-term rates lower than short-term ones, historically a signal of future recession. The Fed's recent increases in short-term rates have not been matched by similar increases in 10-year Treasury note yields.
- Bostic added that the estimated "neutral" rate of interest that would keep inflation at target and economic growth at trend may have slipped to "close to" 2%. If true, it means the Fed could only raise rates two or three more times, from the current range of between 1.25% to 1.50%, before monetary policy is no longer "loose" and encouraging economic activity.
- San Francisco Fed President John Williams said the Federal Reserve could better fight a recession by committing to keep interest rates lower for longer to keep average inflation on a steady upward path over the years.
- The Federal Reserve should consider changing its inflation target to allow for an acceptable range of inflation rates, Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said. Currently, the Fed aims for U.S. consumer prices to rise 2% a year but the central bank has rarely met that target since adopting it in 2012, with inflation typically at less than 2%. Rosengren said it was possible the optimal rate of inflation could shift with time. He said one possibility would be for the Fed to create a band that allowed U.S. inflation to range between 1.5% and 3%.
Technical analysis and trading signals:
- The EUR/USD bears aim to tighten their grip with a daily close below 1.1947, 38.2% retrace of the 1.1718-1.2089 (December-January) rise. If they are successful the current correction could turn into a full blown collapse. 14-day momentum remains positive, but not by much.
- We stay long with profit locked in slightly below 1.1903, 50% retrace of the same 1.1718-1.2089 gain.
USD/JPY: Yen climbs after BoJ trimmed its purchases of long-dated bonds
- The Bank of Japan on Tuesday reduced the amount of its buying in Japanese government bonds with 10 to 25 years left to maturity and those with 25 to 40 years to maturity by 10 billion JPY each from its previous operations.
- The yen reached a five-day high on Tuesday, after the BOJ trimmed its purchases of long-dated government bonds in market operations, stoking speculation the central bank could start to wind down its huge stimulus policy this year.
- BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly dismissed the chance of withdrawing stimulus any time soon, even as some policymakers have recently expressed concerns over the perceived demerits of monetary easing, especially the hit on financial institutions' profit margins. None of the bank's current nine policy board members has proposed any reduction in stimulus. One has even proposed a further easing.
- Since BOJ adopted the yield curve control policy in 2016, the BOJ has tweaked its bond operations more than 10 times. BOJ officials say any changes are fine-tuning meant to keep bond yields in line with its policy goal and not to telegraph hints on its future policy.
- Today’s data showed that Japanese wages rose 0.1% in November from a year earlier after adjustments for inflation, marking the first increase in 11 months. Nominal cash earnings rose 0.9% in November from the same period a year earlier, the largest increase in two months, labour ministry data showed.
- The increase in nominal earnings was due partly to an increase in winter bonus payments, according to a labour ministry official.
- The nationwide core CPI, which includes oil goods but excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 0.9% in November from a year earlier, marking the 11th straight month of gains.
- The CPI data shows that prices are moving toward the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, but there are concerns that wage gains this year will not keep up pace.
- In separate data, the BOJ said the output gap - or the difference between actual and potential GDP - was 1.35% in July-September last year. That was the highest since 1.47% in the first quarter of 2008.
- The potential growth rate from April to September last year was 0.85%, up from 0.83% growth in the previous six-month period. A positive output gap usually spurs inflation and should be encouraging for the BOJ.
- However, households are turning more cautious. The consumer sentiment index fell to 44.7 in December from 44.9 in the previous month, separate data from the Cabinet Office showed today.
- The data released on Tuesday suggest that the government still faces obstacles in generating a sustained increase in consumer spending needed to support faster economic growth.
Technical analysis and trading signals:
- The USD/JPY is fluctuating around near-term moving averages, but we can draw a falling trendline on recent peaks. Yesterday’s doji and today’s drop suggest that further downward move is likely in the coming days.
- Important support levels are 50% fibo of November-December rise at 112.29 and November’s bottom at 110.85. If broken a deeper fall to 61.8% fibo of September-November rise (110.15) is likely. We stay short for 110.30.
TRADING STRATEGIES SUMMARY:
FOREX - MAJOR PAIRS:
FOREX - MAJOR CROSSES:
How to read these tables?
1. Support/Resistance - three closest important support/resistance levels
2. Position/Trading Idea:
BUY/SELL - It means we are looking to open LONG/SHORT position at the Entry Price. If the order is filled we will set the suggested Target and Stop-loss level.
LONG/SHORT - It means we have already taken this position at the Entry Price and expect the rate to go up/down to the Target level.
3. Stop-Loss/Profit Locked In - Sometimes we move the stop-loss level above (in case of LONG) or below (in case of SHORT) the Entry price. This means that we have locked in profit on this position.
4. Risk Factor - green "*" means high level of confidence (low level of uncertainty), grey "**" means medium level of confidence, red "***" means low level of confidence (high level of uncertainty)
5. Position Size (forex)- position size suggested for a USD 10,000 trading account in mini lots. You can calculate your position size as follows: (your account size in USD / USD 10,000) * (our position size). You should always round the result down. For example, if the result was 2.671, your position size should be 2 mini lots. This would be a great tool for your risk management!
Position size (precious metals) - position size suggested for a USD 10,000 trading account in units. You can calculate your position size as follows: (your account size in USD / USD 10,000) * (our position size).
6. Profit/Loss on recently closed position (forex) - is the amount of pips we have earned/lost on recently closed position. The amount in USD is calculated on the assumption of suggested position size for USD 10,000 trading account.
Profit/Loss on recently closed position (precious metals) - is profit/loss we have earned/lost per unit on recently closed position. The amount in USD is calculated on the assumption of suggested position size for USD 10,000 trading account.
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